Crypto ETF flows and futures positions rose in Q3, pointing to more retail and institutional participation after corporate treasuries and VC funding led the first half, JPMorgan analysts said.

Around $50 billion has flowed into digital assets so far this year, with stronger ETF flows and futures positions creating positive momentum heading into the fourth quarter, according to JPMorgan analysts.

The current inflows equal an annualized pace of about $66 billion, the JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a Wednesday report, noting that that’s higher than the $52 billion annualized pace recorded in May, but still around half of last year’s pace.

The analysts usually estimate flows by aggregating crypto fund flows, the flow impulse implied by CME futures, crypto VC fundraising, and publicly listed miners and corporate treasury purchases of digital assets. Now the analysts said they have expanded the estimate to include purchases by private corporate treasuries, private miners and government-related entities.

ETF and futures flows improve

During the first half of the year, digital asset inflows came mainly from Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and crypto venture funding, the analysts noted.

Crypto ETF flows were a headwind during that period, with heavy outflows in May and June. ETF flows have improved since August and are now positive for the year.

However, cumulative ETF flows remain negative when measured from the crypto market downturn that started on Oct. 10, 2025, the analysts said.

Institutional positions in bitcoin and ether futures on CME have also increased over the past two months after a slow start to the year. Bitcoin positioning moved above its previous peak, while ether positioning came close to its October 2025 high.

The analysts also looked at perpetual futures on offshore exchanges by comparing their open interest with the market value of bitcoin and ether. Those measures of leverage have fallen from their peaks since the Oct. 10 correction, but remain above their historical averages, the analysts said.

The analysts’ momentum signals also show that trend-following traders, including commodity trading advisors, have started rebuilding long positions in bitcoin and ether.

As for crypto venture funding, it has been improving since 2024, but more of the capital is going into fewer and larger rounds led by established companies, the analysts noted.

The analysts also noted a shift from equity funding toward debt financing for infrastructure businesses with clearer cash flows. Tokenization is also gaining more attention in venture funding, mainly for business-to-business uses, they said.

Miners remain net sellers

Bitcoin miners have been net sellers this year, but total net selling remains modest at around $1.8 billion, according to the analysts. Most of that shift has come from publicly listed miners. They have moved from accumulating bitcoin toward selling newly mined coins and, in some cases, reducing their existing holdings to fund spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Corporate treasury purchases have mainly come from publicly listed companies. Strategy bought bitcoin at a fast pace early in the year and accounted for a large share of total digital asset inflows, the analysts noted.

Private corporate treasuries bought smaller amounts, likely because they have less flexible funding options and a lower tolerance for bitcoin’s price swings.

Public treasury companies have funded their purchases through common share sales, debt and preferred shares. The analysts said the mix has gradually shifted from debt toward preferred shares, increasing the need for interest and dividend payments.

“In all, while during the first half of the year the capital flow picture was dominated by corporate treasury buying and venture capital funding, in Q3 both ETF flows and futures positioning have increased pointing to greater participation by both retail and institutional investors, thus creating a positive flow momentum into Q4,” the analysts concluded.

Ref: https://paykalken.com

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