Wall Street analysts are split on how quickly Coinbase (ticker COIN) and Gemini (GEMI) can translate expansions beyond spot crypto trading into stable growth.
In a note published Monday, William Blair reiterated an outperform rating on Coinbase, arguing that recent crypto market weakness masks longer-term upside as the company pushes into equities, derivatives, prediction markets, and payments infrastructure.
The firm said investors continue to undervalue Coinbase by viewing it narrowly as a retail trading venue rather than a core piece of crypto financial plumbing.
The rollout aligns with Coinbase’s longer-stated ambition to build a more comprehensive financial platform, spanning 24/7 equities trading, prediction markets, crypto futures, decentralized exchange access, and white-label stablecoins. While acknowledging softer near-term spot volumes, analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury said derivatives and non-trading revenue could be more durable drivers over time.
Rival exchanges, including Gemini, are also looking to diversify revenue streams. Last month, it launched a predictions market while October research from Mizuho Securities found that its growing spending card operations create a “flywheel effect” bringing roughly half of its cardholders onto the exchange.
The William Blair note this week also struck a constructive tone on Gemini’s crypto payments rival Circle and the broader stablecoin market, arguing that USDC commercialization is a matter of timing rather than viability, particularly as payments and enterprise settlement use cases expand.
Goldman Sachs echoed that longer-term view this week, upgrading Coinbase to a buy rating while warning that competition and rate sensitivity could keep margins under pressure in 2026. The bank said Coinbase’s growing mix of non-trading and infrastructure revenue offers some insulation from crypto market swings, even as execution remains a key risk.
Best or worst
Mizuho, however, offered a more mixed outlook on crypto exchanges overall.
In a separate industry survey of retail and institutional investors, the firm found that both groups favor fintech stocks over crypto in 2026, with views on crypto-native exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini split sharply between best- and worst-performer expectations.
Mizuho maintained a neutral rating on Coinbase, citing its strong correlation with bitcoin’s price and continued reliance on retail trading fees, even as it acknowledged upside from volatility, cost discipline, and USDC-linked interest income.
By contrast, the firm kept an outperform rating on Gemini, pointing to user growth, international expansion potential, and its all-in-one trading app, while flagging market volatility and regulatory risk.
